POCRA PSC Risk Levels Matrix (PRL)

The results represented in the matrix is a plot of more than 200k PSCIs for the last 36 months and the results of the Port Call Risk Assessment (POCRA) providing an assessment of the PSCI Probability and PSCI Severity generating a unique Risk Level, as identified/numbered here below and incorporated in the RISK4SEA  Platform (see para 2/ & 3/ below).

1/ Notes on the PRL Matrix (Note# on Bottom RHS of the PRL Matrix Boxes):

Note 1: NOT expected TTL: 18% PSCIs & 24% DET
This is 1 out of 5 PSCIs ad 1 out of 4 Detentions, a lot despite popular belief that PSCIs are happening ONLY when the PSCI Window is open as per MoU, and Local Rules. This is more than what many anticipated.

Note 2: SHOULD be Expected TTL: 60% PSCIS & 53% DET
The majority of the expectations is correct. This is 6 out of 10 PSCIs, and half of the detentions, not an easy guess as many feel that this is where the high risk PSCIs are constrained. This is a weak majority leaving room for a lot PSCIs and Detentions in other Risk Levels

Note 3: NOT Challenging TTL: 35% PSCIs & 9% DET
This 1 out of 3 PSCIs and 1 out of 10 Detentions, again a lot for NON Challenging PSCIs and/or Ports. This is more than what many anticipated.

Note 4: MOST Challenging TTL: 45% PSCIs & 77% DET
This is only less than half of the PSCIs, not a majority and the vast majority of Detentions, approx. 4 out of 5 detentions making the issue of preparation and assessment of all other Risk Levels critical towards PSC Excellence.

Note 5: PRL 7+8+9 TTL: 50% PSCIs & 67% DET
Similar to the Note 4 what is considered the absolute priority for PSC preparation is attracting only half of the PSCIs and only 2 out of 3 detentions with a lot of room for preparation and vigilance to all other Risk Levels.

Note 6: PRL 6 a very tricky Risk Level: 7% PSCIs & 17% DET
This is by far the most troublesome Risk Level, as many feel totally relaxed when they have a call on a MOST Challenging port operating on the assumption that the PSCI will not happen because simply the PSCI Window is NOT open/Due, and therefore are being caught with their guard down.

Note 7: PRL 1 Paradox: PSCIs & DET exist at PRL 1, contrary to popular belief!
This is a brief highlight of all of the above notes and while this is by far the easiest of All Risk Levels, the existence of even a small share pf detentions is bringing the need for PSC Risk Assessment of ALL levels to the table, making it a necessity.

2/ Notes on the Axis of the PSC Risk Levels (PRL) Matrix

X Axis (Probability)
The Axis is working similarly to the MoUs principle and prioritization system:

• Non-Priority Ships (PSCI is NOT Expected)
• Priority II Ships (PSCI MAYBE Expected)
• Priority I Ships (PSCI SHOULD Be Expected)

Y Axis (Severity)
This is set to adjust for three (3) basic conditions:

• NOT challenging PSCIs that generally imply NO detentions in that port for the specific segment in the Last 24-36 months
• MAYBE Challenging PSCIS for the 20% of the Ports for each segment
• MOST Challenging PSCIs for the Top 10% Challenging Ports for each segment, noting that a Port may be Most challenging into a specific segment and NOT challenging for another fleet segment

3/ Notes on how the PRL Matrix is formed and why it is important

1. The PRL Matrix above is the result of the plot of actual data of more than 200k PSCIs for the last 36 months and the results of the Port Call Risk Assessment (POCRA) providing an assessment of the PSCI Probability and PSCI Severity generating a unique Risk Level, as  identified/nembered above and incorporated in the RISK4SEA  Platform.
2. The PSC Risk Levels (PRL) represent Risk Conditions of escalating severity (e.g. PRL 2 represents a higher PSC risk compared to PRL1 and so on, with PRL 9 being the highest Risk that anyone may face and so on. Therefore, anyone may process these levels of Risk with 1 being the lowest and the 9 being the highest.
3. The percentages of Port State Control Inspections (% PSCIs) and Detentions (% DETs) are taken from the actual global fleet of oceangoing ships performance of a Last 36 months for ALL Ships, All Ports and All countries, (including those NOT participating in any MoU), based on RISK4SEA data and intelligence with a research dataset of 250K PSCIs and 6K Detentions.
4. The PRL Matrix is important for two main reasons:
   1. It provides guidance on the actions that may be required for each of the Risk Levels
   2. It provides a clear outline with real data on the conditions that the PSCIs and the Detentions are occurring for those paying attention and willing to avoid repetition

4/ Notes to the users of the RISK4SEA PSC Automation System

1. Users that apply settings to the PSC Automation system should be aware of these statistics for their own benefit, taking into consideration their own actual PRL Matrix Performance (Actual number of Calls, PSCIs, Detentions, Deficiencies and Detentions on each of the PRL levels). Different Fleet profiles and ship types, depending on the actual trade have totally different profiles on the PRL Matrix.
2. With the PSC Automation System the user has full control of the outcome of each of the nine (9) risk levels, depending on the PSCI probability and the POST PSCI Severity expectation (set limits to the Checklist, set alerts, bypass the settings, apply port, country, MoU specific conditions or additions to the Ship Preparation Checklist).
3. The Automation system may activate a number of e-mail and actions in advance of the call to make sure that the Ship will be better prepared ahead of the call. Therefore, the user has FULL CONTROL on who/when will be receiving mails on each of the PRLs via the system settings, even when applying conditions on each of the PRLs for specific Ports, Countries and MoUs.
4. As a general rule to minimize noise note that the MORE Risk Levels (Boxes) a user includes (excludes) in the e-mail alerts to be forwarded to the ships, the MORE e-mails the ships will (or will NOT) receive.
5. Given a full, 100% assessment of ALL Ship Calls one must bear in mind that only a small fraction of these calls may convert to an actual PSCIs (actual number for the global fleet, depending on ship type and trade, in the range of 5 to 15%, for the following reasons:
   • The Actual Risk level may NOT be in the to do list for the Port Authorities as per National and MoU Rules.
   • The arrival Day and time may be outside working hours and/or availability of PSCO and/or busy port schedule with respect to PSC Inspections.
   • The Terminal/Ship is remote in proximity to the PSC station/basis.
   • The duration of the stay in the specific port may not be enough for the Ship to be Inspected.
   • The PSC workload at that time of the Ship Call in the port may be enormous with non availability of PSCOs vs ships in port etc.
   • The local Port Authorities may have no previous PSC record or experience on specific ship types.